Sunday Market Insight – June 29, 2025

As we close out the final week of June, Indian equity markets continue to display remarkable resilience and strength. The Nifty 50 ended the week above the 25,600 mark, scaling an eight-month high, while the Sensex climbed more than 1,600 points to finish at 84,058, propelled by easing geopolitical tensions, declining crude oil prices, strong FII participation, and optimism surrounding trade and earnings.

Looking ahead, market sentiment is expected to remain positive as global and domestic developments converge to create a favorable investment environment.

🧭 Market Outlook for the Week Ahead

The Nifty is poised to test the 26,000 milestone, supported by:

Declining oil prices, with Brent crude falling nearly 20% to $68/bbl Positive FII flows, with net purchases exceeding ₹14,000 crore in the past two sessions Calmer geopolitical conditions, especially following the Israel-Iran ceasefire Anticipation of a favorable US-India trade agreement ahead of the key July 9 deadline All-time highs in US markets, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all posting new records

Domestic factors such as June auto sales data (July 1), the listing of HDB Financial Services (July 2), GST collection figures, and the upcoming Q1 earnings season (TCS on July 10) are expected to drive stock-specific and sectoral momentum.

📌 Focus Areas for the Coming Week

1. Trade & Geopolitics:

Expect markets to closely track developments in US-China, US-Europe, and US-India trade discussions. Remarks from US Fed officials will also be watched ahead of the July 30 interest rate decision.

2. Sectors in Spotlight:

IT Sector: Boosted by Nasdaq gains and Nvidia’s record close. Stocks to watch: Kfin Tech, Infosys, LTI Mindtree, Persistent Systems Metals: Rising global demand, softer dollar, and reduced tariff risk. Positive for SAIL, Hind Zinc, Vedanta, NMDC Defence: Recovery likely after recent 7–10% correction. Positive bias for BEL, Mazagon Dock, Paras Defence Realty: Healthy quarterly earnings and demand outlook support momentum. Stocks to track: DLF, Lodha, Oberoi Realty Auto: Tailwind from monthly sales data. Expect strength in Maruti, Tata Motors, M&M Oil Price Beneficiaries: Paints, aviation, tyres, and downstream oil. Watch BPCL, Apollo Tyres, Indigo

📊 Market Breadth & Internals

India VIX declined to 12.39, reflecting lower market volatility expectations. Advances led declines throughout the week, indicating a strong bullish undercurrent. Top performing sectors: Metals (+5%) Media (+5%), driven by ZEE PSU Banks, Auto, and Energy (1–3% gainers) Underperformers: Realty (-1.8%) and Defence (-1%) faced mild profit booking

🌍 Global Markets Snapshot

Global equities surged this week:

Dow Jones rose 4%, gaining over 1,600 points Nasdaq Composite hit a record close at 20,412 (+3.8%) S&P 500 reached 6,223, up 4%

The rally was fueled by:

Renewed US-China trade optimism 20% correction in oil prices, which reduced inflationary pressures A drop in the US 10-year yield to 4.25% Expectations of three additional Fed rate cuts this year

📈 FIIs & DIIs (Weekly)

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs): Net buyers worth ₹4,424 crore Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs): Net buyers worth ₹12,391 crore

🛢️ Commodities Overview

Crude Oil: Dropped sharply by 12% to $68/bbl, its biggest weekly fall since March 2023, thanks to a de-escalation in the Middle East. Gold: Down 1.2%, closing at $3,373/oz, amid rising investor risk appetite and positive macroeconomic indicators.

📅 Corporate Actions (July 1–5, 2025)

Key dividends and corporate events to watch:

July 1: Indian Hotels (₹2.5), Sagarsoft (₹2) July 2: Cera Sanitaryware (₹65), Polychem (₹20) July 4: Bharat Forge (₹6), Tech Mahindra (₹30), M&M (₹25.3), Nippon AMC (₹10), Petronet LNG (₹3), Nestle India (₹10), and several others including bonus issues and stock splits

🌐 Global Economic Calendar – Week of July 1–5, 2025

United States

Tuesday: Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings Thursday: Non-farm Payrolls, Private Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims Friday: Services PMI, Composite PMI

Europe

Monday: Germany Retail Sales, UK GDP & Consumption Tuesday: Manufacturing PMIs (France, Germany, UK) Thursday: Services & Composite PMIs (France, Germany, UK) Friday: French Manufacturing & Industrial Production, UK Construction PMI

China

Monday: Official PMIs Tuesday: Caixin PMIs (Manufacturing, Services, Composite)

Japan

Monday: Industrial Production, Housing Starts Tuesday: Manufacturing PMI, Consumer Confidence Thursday: Services PMI, Composite PMI Friday: Household Spending

India

Monday: Industrial Production, Bank Credit YoY Tuesday: Manufacturing, Services & Composite PMIs Friday: Weekly Foreign Exchange Reserves

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