Sunday Standpoint – Weekly Market Outlook | June 22, 2025
As we enter the final trading week of June, markets remain delicately poised between opportunity and caution. The sharp recovery in frontline indices last week was supported by robust foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows and improving domestic macros. However, heightened geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, combined with rising oil prices and a cautious U.S. Federal Reserve, signal that volatility may persist in the week ahead.
🧭 Market Outlook for the Week Ahead
Markets are expected to remain highly responsive to evolving geopolitical developments. A key driver this week will be the U.S. President’s position on Iran, with Donald Trump stating he will decide within two weeks on potential intervention—buying time for diplomatic backchannels. Any signs of de-escalation could ease investor anxiety and support a continued uptrend in risk assets.
On the policy front, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish pause has left markets watching for July as the likely start for interest rate cuts. However, Fed officials signalled a slower pace of easing, dampening expectations for multiple cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, India continues to attract global attention with resilient growth indicators and the hope of a favourable monsoon season.
📈 Weekly Market Recap
Nifty 50 advanced 1.6%, closing at 25,118
Sensex rose by 1.8%, settling at 82,418
The rally was led by index heavyweights including Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel, and Mahindra & Mahindra
Despite the strong uptrend in large caps, mid- and small-cap stocks witnessed profit-booking, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid geopolitical instability. Sectors such as Banking, Auto, Financials, and IT gained up to 1.5%, while Pharma, PSU Banks, and broader market indices saw declines between 1% and 2%.
Investor sentiment remained underpinned by hopes of a rate cut by the Fed in July and a dovish shift thereafter.
💹 Market Breadth & Internals
Advancing stocks: 1,823
Declining stocks: 768
Unchanged: 96
52-week highs: 51
52-week lows: 21
Upper circuits: 73
Lower circuits: 47
Volume action remained healthy across the futures segment, with Nifty and Bank Nifty futures trading above average, indicating continued institutional participation.
🧭 Key Themes & Sectoral Focus
🔐 Defence Sector
With heightened geopolitical risks, defence stocks are in focus. Continued strength is expected in Mazagon Dock, GRSE, BDL, BEL, Data Patterns, and BEML, backed by strong order books and solid quarterly performance.
🛒 FMCG
A favourable monsoon outlook bodes well for rural consumption, placing Marico, Britannia, Hindustan Unilever, and Dabur in a positive light. Seasonal tailwinds and pricing discipline further enhance attractiveness.
🏦 Banks & NBFCs
In a significant regulatory move, the RBI has eased provisioning norms for project finance loans, effective October 1. This is expected to benefit lenders like Sundaram Finance, Shriram Finance, Chola Investment, Bank of India, Canara Bank, PNB, and State Bank of India.
🌍 Global Market Recap & Outlook
Global equities ended mixed. U.S. indices were flat to mildly positive, while European and Asian markets declined by up to 1% amid caution around central bank policy signals and rising Middle East tensions.
Brent crude surged to $77/barrel, a five-month high
Gold dipped 1.8%, trading near $3,370/oz as haven demand softened after diplomatic signals from the U.S.
Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan both held rates steady but struck cautious tones
Fed Chair Powell flagged summer inflation risk and reduced the expected number of rate cuts for the year
💰 FII & DII Activity (This Week)
FIIs: Net buyers of ₹8,709 crore
DIIs: Net buyers of ₹12,635 crore
Strong institutional flows reinforce the strength of the Indian equity narrative, especially in large-cap and quality stocks.
🛢️ Commodities Snapshot (This Week)
Brent Crude: +5% | Five-month high at $77/barrel Elevated due to Middle East tensions and supply concerns
Gold: -1.8% | Retreats to $3,370/oz As diplomatic hopes replace fears of imminent U.S. military action
📅 Corporate Actions – Next Week
Monday:
Dalmia Bharat (₹5), HUL (₹24), Kansai Nerolac (₹3.75 incl. special), Kalpataru Projects (₹9), Pilani Investment (₹15), V-Mart Retail (Bonus 3:1)
Tuesday:
Alkyl Amines (₹10), Laddu Gopal Online (Stock Split ₹10 → ₹2), Polycab India (₹35), Vedanta (₹7)
Wednesday:
Automobile Corporation of Goa (₹20), Elitecon International (Split ₹10 → ₹1), Quest Capital Markets (₹2.5)
Friday:
Allied Blenders (₹3.6), Alufluoride (₹3), Bajaj Holdings (₹28), CARE Ratings (₹11), Cipla (₹16 incl. special), HDFC Bank (₹22), Maharashtra Scooters (₹60 incl. special), Padam Cotton (Split ₹10 → ₹1), Rainbow Children’s Medicare (₹3), RPG Life Sciences (₹24 incl. special), Swaraj Engines (₹104.5)
🌐 Global Economic Calendar – Week of June 24–28, 2025
United States:
Monday: Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, Composite PMI Tuesday: Consumer Confidence Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales Thursday: Personal Consumption, GDP, Jobless Claims Friday: Personal Spending, 1-year & 5–10-year Inflation Expectations
Europe (Germany, France, UK):
Monday: Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMIs Wednesday–Friday: Consumer Confidence, CPI, PPI, Retail Sales
Japan:
Monday: Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMIs Wednesday: PPI Thursday: Foreign Bonds & Stocks Buying Friday: Jobless Rate, CPI, Retail Sales
India:
Monday: Manufacturing, Services, Composite PMIs Friday: Industrial Production, Foreign Exchange Reserves
China:
Friday: Industrial Profits
🇮🇳 India Macro Highlights
FX Reserves: At an 8-month high of $698 billion
Core Output: Slipped to a 9-month low
MF AUM: Surged to 1/3rd of total bank deposits
Advance Tax Collection: Up 4.86% YoY
HDB IPO: Priced at ₹720, 40% below unlisted market valuation
As we approach the June series expiry, short-term volatility may spike, but the long-term setup remains constructive, powered by macro resilience and improving global liquidity outlook.
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