Global markets enter the new week with a cautious stance, as investors navigate a complex environment marked by geopolitical tensions, expectations of rate decisions, and a strong domestic macro backdrop.
The sharp easing in inflation—both in India and the U.S.—has improved the outlook for interest rate cuts. However, this optimism is offset by rising oil prices and renewed concerns over Middle East tensions, especially after Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and retaliatory threats from Tehran.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on June 18 is the most critical trigger in the coming week. Traders are also watching developments in the U.S.–China trade equation, as well as statements from the Bank of England and People’s Bank of China, for cues on global growth and liquidity conditions.
Market Outlook for the Week
The U.S. Fed’s upcoming policy meeting will be pivotal, especially after recent data showed May U.S. CPI rising just 0.1%, well below the 0.3% estimate. This gives markets hope of a dovish tone or even a rate cut.
In India, retail inflation dropped to a 6-year low of 2.82%, offering room for the RBI to follow suit with policy easing, especially after already cutting rates by 50 bps and reducing CRR by 100 bps, infusing ₹2.5 trillion liquidity into the system.
Escalating Israel-Iran tensions, however, remain the biggest overhang, having triggered a spike in Brent crude above $74/bbl and rattled global equity sentiment. Markets also await the outcome of China’s rate decision and fresh comments from the U.S. administration on trade policies toward Europe and India.
Weekly Market Recap – June 9 to June 14, 2025
Indian equities mirrored global caution:
Nifty lost 284 points (1.1%) to close at 24,718
Sensex fell 1,070 points (1.3%), ending at 81,118
Selling was broad-based, led by realty, PSU banks, FMCG, and auto sectors. On the flip side, IT and pharma stocks offered some cushion due to safe-haven buying and expectations of U.S. policy easing.
Despite favorable inflation data, global tensions and stalling trade talks between the U.S. and China limited upside momentum.
Market Breadth & Internals
Advance–Decline Ratio deteriorated sharply mid-week as global sentiment weakened.
FII activity was mixed, with net buying worth ₹1,246 crore, while DIIs remained steady buyers with ₹18,637 crore inflows.
Participation was notably stronger in mid-cap and small-cap segments, driven by specific stock-level triggers.
Sectoral & Stock Themes to Watch
🔹 Defence Sector
Geo-political volatility continues to fuel defence names. Expect strength in BDL, BEL, HAL, Mazagon Dock, GRSE, and Paras Defence.
🔹 Bulk Carrier Shipping
With the Baltic Dry Index up 30% in a month, shipping stocks like SCI, GE Shipping, and Mazagon Dock may remain in demand.
🔹 Banks, NBFCs, and Realty
Inflation easing + liquidity infusion = credit expansion. Positive outlook for SBI, PNB, BoB, Cholamandalam, Shriram Finance, Bajaj Finance, Godrej Properties, DLF, Lodha, Oberoi Realty.
🔹 IT Sector
Benefiting from easing U.S. inflation and FTA discussions with Europe. Positive bias on TCS, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, LTI Mindtree, HCL Tech, Persistent.
🔹 Upstream Oil Companies
Rising crude is a tailwind for Oil India and ONGC, amid fears of Middle East supply disruptions.
🔹 Gold Loan NBFCs
RBI revised LTV ratio from 75% to 85% for gold loans under ₹2.5 lakh. Stocks like Muthoot Finance, Manappuram, IIFL Finance likely to benefit.
Global Market Update
U.S. equities broke their two-week winning streak. Dow Jones fell 2%, Nasdaq down 1% European and Asian markets declined 2–4% Concerns escalated after reports of Israel targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure
This surge in geopolitical tension overshadowed the initial optimism from soft U.S. inflation data and drove a shift to safe-haven assets.
Commodity Highlights
Brent Crude surged 10% to $74/bbl, on fears of further escalation disrupting global oil supply. Gold hit an all-time high at US$3,432/oz, driven by safe-haven flows amid geopolitical unrest.
Corporate Actions – Upcoming Week
Monday – Bajaj Finance (Bonus & Stock Split), Tata Tech (Special + Final Dividend), Honeywell Automation (Final Dividend)
Tuesday – Hindustan Zinc (Interim), Shankara Building (Final)
Wednesday – Sarla Performance Fibers (Final)
Thursday – Panasonic Carbon, RIIL, Tata Communications, Tejas Networks (Final Dividends)
Friday – Ajcon Global (Split), Bajaj Auto, PNB, Bank of India, HDFC Life, Torrent Pharma, Supreme Industries, Tata Power (Final Dividends)
Global Economic Calendar – June 17–21, 2025
🇺🇸 United States:
Tuesday – Retail Sales, Imports/Exports, Industrial Production Wednesday – Mortgage Applications, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, FOMC Rate Decision Thursday – Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Friday – (No major data)
🇪🇺 Europe (UK, France, Germany):
Wednesday – UK CPI, RPI Thursday – Bank of England Rate Decision Friday – UK Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales (UK & France), Public Sector Net Borrowing (UK), Business & Manufacturing Confidence (France), PPI (Germany)
🇨🇳 China:
Monday – Retail Sales, Industrial Production Friday – 1-Year and 5-Year Loan Prime Rate
🇯🇵 Japan:
Wednesday – Exports, Imports, Core Machine Orders Thursday – Foreign Bond & Stock Investment Friday – Consumer Price Index
🇮🇳 India:
Monday – Wholesale Price Index, Trade Data (Exports & Imports) Friday – Foreign Exchange Reserves
⚖️ Conclusion: Sector-Driven Moves Amid Global Uncertainty
The market remains in a delicate balance—with easing inflation and strong domestic macro data on one side, and rising crude, geo-political risks, and trade friction on the other. Expect sectoral churn and stock-specific action to dominate the coming week.
📊 A tug of war continues between support-based buying and lack of follow-through momentum. Markets remain sensitive to global headlines and policy cues.
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