March 16, 2025

Markets Take a Breather After Recent Rally

The Indian equity markets ended the week on a negative note, with both the NIFTY 50 and SENSEX retreating after last week’s strong rally. Midcaps and small caps significantly underperformed, while PSU banks emerged as the only notable gainers. Despite strong domestic economic indicators, market sentiment remained cautious due to ongoing global uncertainties.

Weekly Market Performance (March 10 – 13, 2025)

Benchmark Indices

• NIFTY 50: 22,397.20 🔻 -0.69%

• SENSEX: 74,018.50 🔻 -0.67%

• Nifty Midcap 150: 🔻 -2.12%

• Nifty Smallcap 250: 🔻 -3.47% (Underperformed large caps!)

Institutional Activity

• Foreign Institutional Investors (FII): Net sellers of ₹5,729.68 crore

• Domestic Institutional Investors (DII): Net buyers of ₹5,499.47 crore

Sectoral Performance

• Gainers:

• Nifty PSU Bank: 🔼 0.43% (Only gainer!)

• Nifty Bank: 🔼 0.01% (Flat movement)

• Losers:

• Nifty Metal: 🔻 -0.87%

• Nifty Auto: 🔻 -1.10%

• Nifty IT: 🔻 -0.52%

• Nifty FMCG: 🔻 -0.15%

• Nifty Media: 🔻 -1.50%

• Nifty Realty: 🔻 -1.83% (Worst performer!)

Stock Highlights

🔝 Top Performers:

• Krishna Institute of Medical Sciences Ltd 🩺 🔼 11.3%

• Aavas Financiers Ltd 🏠 🔼 10.2%

• Tata Communications Ltd 📡 🔼 8.7%

📉 Top Underperformers:

• IndusInd Bank Ltd 🏦 🔻 -28.2%

• Triveni Turbine Ltd ⚙️ 🔻 -16.2%

• Firstsource Solutions Ltd 📞 🔻 -14.3%

Key Market Trends & Outlook

What’s Driving the Market?

1. Global Central Bank Decisions:

• The US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday will be the biggest market-moving event. With inflation cooling to a four-month low, expectations of a rate cut later this year have strengthened.

• The Bank of England (BoE) will also announce its rate decision, with investors analyzing its stance amid recent global trade tensions.

2. US Inflation & Trade Concerns:

• US core inflation (excluding food & energy) eased to 0.2%, while overall inflation dropped to 2.8%, the lowest in four months. However, concerns remain over the impact of potential new tariffs by the US administration.

3. India’s Domestic Strength:

• Inflation dropped to a seven-month low of 3.61%, below the RBI’s 4% target, increasing speculation of a 75-bps rate cut in the fiscal year (25 bps each in April, June, and October).

• Industrial production surged by over 5% in January, marking an eight-month high.

• Moody’s revised India’s GDP forecast to 6.5% (up from 6.3%), reinforcing a strong growth outlook.

4. Oil Prices & Geopolitics:

• Brent crude dropped to a four-month low of $70 per barrel, providing relief for energy-importing nations like India.

• Easing geopolitical tensions after Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal to Russia have contributed to improved sentiment.

Sectors to Watch Next Week

✅ Banking & NBFCs – Positive outlook due to declining inflation & potential RBI rate cuts. (Top picks: SBI, HDFC Bank, M&M Finance, PNB, Bajaj Finance.)

✅ Real Estate – Cooling inflation and expected rate cuts could benefit property stocks. (Top picks: Godrej Properties, Sobha, Oberoi Realty.)

✅ Oil & Gas – Government incentives for oil exploration could drive sector growth. (Top picks: ONGC, Engineers India, OIL India, Reliance Industries.)

✅ Consumer Durables (AC Stocks) – Rising temperatures & demand for cooling appliances boost this sector. (Top picks: Voltas, Amber Enterprises, Blue Star, PG Electroplast.)

✅ Defense – Strong order flows & rising global defense budgets support this sector. (Top picks: BEL, BDL, HAL, Data Patterns, Mazagon Dock, L&T.)

✅ Sugar Stocks – Reduced sugar production estimates could support pricing. (Top picks: Balrampur Chini, Renuka Sugar.)

Global Markets Recap

• US & Europe: Equities fell 1-2% amid trade war concerns but rebounded as bargain buying lifted US indices by 2% on Friday.

• China & Germany: China’s markets gained on expectations of stimulus measures, while Germany’s proposed €500 billion spending plan boosted sentiment.

• US Consumer Sentiment: Dropped to a two-year low, reflecting worries over tariffs and inflation.

Key Global Economic Events Next Week

United States:

• Monday: Retail Sales, NAHB Housing Market Index

• Tuesday: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization

• Wednesday: FOMC Rate Decision

• Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales

Europe:

• Thursday: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

• Friday: Consumer Confidence, Business Confidence (France)

China:

• Monday: Industrial Production, Retail Sales

• Thursday: 1-Year & 5-Year Loan Prime Rate

India:

• Monday: Import & Export Data

• Friday: Foreign Exchange Reserves

Final Thoughts

With multiple macroeconomic events lined up, the upcoming week will be crucial for markets. The US Fed’s rate decision and commentary will dictate near-term market movements, while domestic investors will focus on inflation trends, industrial growth, and FII flows.

📌 Want more insights? Watch our detailed market analysis on YouTube!

Stay updated, stay invested!

— Team Angeeras Securities