January 19, 2025

As markets brace for a new trading week, let’s reflect on last week’s performance and identify key factors likely to shape the week ahead.

Market Snapshot: Key Trends and Drivers

Last Week’s Performance

• Nifty: Declined by 1%, reflecting subdued investor sentiment despite robust global cues.

• US Markets: The Dow surged 1,500 points to a two-month high, but Indian markets failed to mirror this optimism.

Contributing Factors

• Headwinds:

• Sustained Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows.

• USD/INR nearing 87, adding to import costs.

• Crude oil prices at a four-month high.

• Delays in key economic policy implementations by the Indian government.

• Tailwinds:

• China’s GDP grew by 5.4%, surpassing expectations.

• India’s inflation eased to a four-month low.

• Positive momentum in sectors like oil & gas, metals, FMCG, auto, and real estate.

• Bargain hunting in fertilizer, rail, and PSU sectors.

Outlook for the Coming Week

Global Influences

• US Political Transition: Markets will watch closely as President-elect Donald Trump assumes office. Policy clarity and global trade implications will be pivotal.

• Economic Indicators:

• Global PMI data from the US, Europe, and India.

• Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision.

• Anticipated rate cut by China.

• Dollar Index: With the index hovering below 109, currency dynamics will be key for global sentiment.

Domestic Developments

• Corporate Earnings: Quarterly results will continue to drive stock-specific movements.

• Policy Updates: Reports of a potential AGR dues waiver of ₹1 lakh crore for telecom companies offer relief to cash-strapped players.

• Sectoral Focus:

• PSU Banks: Anticipation of an RBI rate cut.

• Railways: Potentially higher allocations in the upcoming Union Budget.

• Sugar Industry: Expected MSP increase and export relaxations.

• Metals: Favorable global outlook driven by China’s economic recovery.

Technical Levels to Watch

• Nifty:

• Psychological level: 23,200.

• Upside levels: 23,296.75 / 23,488.50.

• Downside support: 23,105.

Strategic Insights

For detailed insights on buy-and-sell strategies, don’t miss our Sunday YouTube special where we break down actionable plans and discuss market nuances.

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